What’s the deal with Arizona?

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On the roster: What’s the deal with Arizona? – I’ll Tell You What: Who wouldn’t wanna be like America? – Great Lakes States polling smorgasbord – Biden casts ballot, manages expectations on corona – Canada, man

When Hillary Clinton campaigned in Arizona four years ago, it was touted as the frontrunning Democrat going “for the kill.”

What we would find out later was that the move was either desperation or misdirection by a campaign more consumed by psychodrama than an episode of “Beverly Hills 90210.”

But nobody is fooling anybody about Arizona, this time. President Trump is campaigning today in the Grand Canyon State, which he won by a little more than 3 points in 2016. Democratic vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris is there too as the two parties fight for the most surprising, revealing swing state of 2020.

The latest polling out of Arizona says what most surveys have been showing for months: A persistent advantage for former Vice President Joe Biden and an even better showing for Democratic Senate nominee Mark Kelly. There are some signs that the race is tightening, but Republicans still need a substantial turnaround to hold onto this fast-growing Southwestern state.

To put it in perspective, Trump is underperforming his polling average in Arizona by more than 7 points compared to the last time around.

Part of Arizona’s story this year is a very predictable one.

As Americans have flocked to Arizona and the state has grown more prosperous, younger voters – both natives and job seekers – and more moderate snowbirds have changed the polity of this once bright-red dessert redoubt for Republicans.

As Trump’s improved standing with Hispanic voters has demonstrated, the issue here for Republicans isn’t so much about the ethnic demography of the state but instead the economic and education trendlines. More college graduates, more upper-middle-class voters is never good news for the GOP these days.

This helps us explain how Republicans lost the 2018 Senate race in Arizona to moderate Democrat, Kyrsten Sinema. As Republicans struggle in the suburbs and as Arizona becomes more suburban, problems will arise for the Red Team. Maybe think of it this way: as shrinking states like Ohio move to the red side, they’re crossing paths with growing states like Arizona.

But demography is not really destiny, sorry Aguste Comte. There are also the choices people make.

Take, for instance, the choice to select Martha McSally, the woman Sinema beat, to fill the seat left vacant by the death of John McCain. It might have worked in another seat or state, but to replace McCain, revered for his bipartisanship and gentility, in such a partisan power play was no smart move.

But even less smart was Trump’s decision to wage a relentless war with McCain and the state’s other former senator, Jeff Flake. It’s one thing to rip on your fellow Republicans in Senate races in Alabama or Utah or other iron-clad winners. But to antagonize swing state voters for years with these squabbles? It makes no sense.

We have been – and remain – consistently skeptical about Arizona’s pronounced lean in the polls. Like Texas, we would be little surprised to see Trump do better than expected in current polls.

But if Republicans do screw around and lose Arizona like they did Nevada before it, it won’t just be the changing population of the state, but the choices Trump and his party made.   

“This idea admits not of precise demonstration, because there is no rule by which we can measure the momentum of civil power necessary to the government of any given number of individuals…” – Alexander Hamilton, writing about the advantages of the Union, Federalist No. 13

Garden&Gun: “At this point, pastry chef Kelly Fields’s cornbread has achieved its own level of celebrity. Glazed in cane syrup and available by mail nationwide, it’s earned a devoted following—but the chef-owner of New Orleans’s Willa Jean will be the first to tell you that from-scratch baking isn’t the only way to get delicious results. ‘Jiffy cornbread is what I grew up with,’ Fields tells G&G with a laugh. ‘There’s so much science in that. They figured out how to do cornbread, and the reality is, that’s all a lot of people have time for.’ But taking a shortcut doesn’t have to take away the fun—or the creativity—of freshly baked treats. ‘If you’re short on time or gumption and want delicious cornbread immediately, here are some of my favorite ideas for making it special when you aren’t making it from scratch,’ writes Fields in her excellent new cookbook, The Good Book of Southern Baking.”

Flag on the play? – Email us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM with your tips, comments or questions.

Trump: 39.2 percent
Biden: 50.4 percent
Size of lead: Biden by 11.2 points
Change from one week ago: Biden ↓ 1 point, Trump ↓ 0.8 points
[Average includes: CNBC: Trump 40% – Biden 51%; Quinnipiac University: Trump 41% – Biden 51%; NYT/Siena: Trump 41% – Biden 50%; AP/NORC: Trump 36% – Biden 51%; KFF: Trump 38% – Biden 49%.]

(270 electoral votes needed to win)
Toss-up: (109 electoral votes): Wisconsin (10), Ohio (18), Florida (29), Arizona (11), Pennsylvania (20), North Carolina (15), Iowa (6)
Lean R/Likely R: (180 electoral votes)
Lean D/Likely D: (249 electoral votes)
[Full rankings here.]

Average approval: 41.6 percent
Average disapproval: 55 percent
Net Score: -13.4 points
Change from one week ago: ↓ 0.8 points
[Average includes: CNBC: 42% approve – 53% disapprove; Quinnipiac University: 41% approve – 55% disapprove; Gallup: 43% approve – 55% disapprove; NYT/Siena: 43% approve – 51% disapprove; AP/NORC: 39% approve – 61% disapprove.]

We’ve brought “From the Bleachers” to video on demand thanks to Fox Nation. Each Wednesday and Friday, Producer Brianna McClelland will put Politics Editor Chris Stirewalt to the test with your questions on everything about politics, government and American history – plus whatever else is on your mind. Sign up for the Fox Nation streaming service here and send your best questions to HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM.

With just one week until election day, Dana Perino and Chris Stirewalt compare notes. They discuss what some recent public opinion polling can tell us about how the election might go, how the millennial vote might impact election outcomes and the week that was on the campaign trail. Plus, Chris answers ‘extremely difficult balance of power’ trivia. LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE HERE

NYT says Biden up 8 in Michigan – NYT: “Four years ago, Michigan provided one of Mr. Trump’s most surprising victories and helped him barrel through the so-called blue wall of Northern industrial states that had favored Democrats in presidential elections since the 1990s. This year, Michigan is trending with those states again, but in the wrong direction for Mr. Trump’s hopes of re-election. Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, had the support of 49 percent of likely voters in the poll, and Mr. Trump was at 41 percent, virtually unchanged from a Times/Siena survey of Michigan two weeks ago.”

Marquette Law says Biden ahead by a steady 6 in Wisconsin – Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: “Democrat Joe Biden holds a 5-point lead over President Donald Trump in Wisconsin, according to Wednesday’s Marquette University Law School Poll. Biden is backed by 48% of likely Wisconsin voters while Trump is supported by 43%. Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen is at 2%, while 8% say they’re either undecided, won’t reveal their preference or won’t vote. Marquette’s final survey before Tuesday’s vote was in line with its polling throughout the campaign season. Since May, Biden’s lead over Trump has fluctuated between 4 and 6 points in Wisconsin.”

ABC/WaPo says Biden dominates Wisconsin, has clear edge in Michigan – ABC News: “A surge in coronavirus cases has damaged President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign in Wisconsin, with growing criticism of his work on the pandemic and preference for former Vice President Joe Biden to handle it. Biden holds a slighter advantage in Michigan, with sizable leads among women, moderates and independents in ABC News/Washington Post polls in both states. Biden leads Trump by 57-40% among likely voters in Wisconsin, a state that’s now reported to be third in the nation in per capita COVID-19 cases, with a 53% increase in average daily cases in the past two weeks, a record number of hospitalizations and a 112% jump in deaths. That compares with a closer 52-46% in mid-September. In Michigan, it’s 51-44%, Biden-Trump, among likely voters, a slight Biden lead in this poll…”

AP: “Joe Biden said Wednesday he’s ‘not running on the false promises of being able to end this pandemic by flipping a switch’ but would prioritize science, while President Donald Trump used the race’s final days to keep up a whirlwind campaign schedule aimed at focusing on anything but the coronavirus. The Democratic presidential nominee tried to keep the focus on health care, arguing that a Supreme Court conservative majority stretched to 6-3 by newly confirmed Justice Amy Coney Barrett could dismantle the Obama administration’s signature health law and leave millions of Americans with preexisting conditions devoid of insurance coverage. Biden kept most of his focus on the virus, saying Trump’s handling of the pandemic was an ‘insult’ to its victims, especially as cases rise dramatically around the country. … Biden voted early in Delaware on Wednesday and also received a virtual briefing from public health experts.”

Biden jumps ahead in Georgia poll – Monmouth University: “The race for Georgia’s electoral votes remains very close, but Joe Biden has gained ground on Donald Trump in the latest Monmouth University Poll.  … Among all registered voters in Georgia, Biden is supported by 50% and Trump is supported by 45%. … In a high turnout model, Biden has 50% support and Trump has 46%. Trump led in this model by 2 points in September and one point in July. The race is tighter using a lower turnout model at 50% Biden and 48% Trump, whereas the incumbent led by 3 to 5 points in this model in prior polls. Trump won Georgia by five points in 2016.”

Politico: “Weeks ago, when Rudy Giuliani first threw the contents of Hunter Biden’s alleged laptop online, he promised a trove of even more damning information 10 days before the election. Yet with less than a week to go, Giuliani, President Donald Trump’s personal lawyer, is still moving down the conservative media food chain, looking for takers. The Wall Street Journal and Fox News have both reported finding no evidence that former Vice President Joe Biden benefited from the Hunter Biden business dealings that have drawn scrutiny. More explicitly pro-Trump media outlets — OAN, Breitbart, Newsmax — have mostly shied away from publishing fresher, more salacious allegations. And conservative talking heads — pundits, politicians and loud MAGA Twitter personalities alike — have been more focused on the meta narrative around the laptop, arguing that mainstream media, social media companies and the deep state are conspiring to prevent President Donald Trump’s reelection by suppressing the story.”

Biden not biting – Fox News: “Joe Biden and his presidential campaign are staying mum after Hunter Biden’s former business associate went public to say he met twice in the past with the former vice president — despite past statements from Biden on the campaign trail that he had no involvement with or discussions about his family’s overseas business ventures. That associate, Tony Bobulinski, gave an interview on Fox News’ ‘Tucker Carlson Tonight’ on Tuesday and detailed his alleged meetings with the former vice president…”

Devotees endure punishing cold to cheer Trump – Omaha World-Herald: “Hundreds of people who attended President Donald Trump’s rally Tuesday evening at Eppley Airfield spent up to three hours in freezing temperatures waiting for buses to take them back to their cars. Paramedics took six people to local hospitals ‘due to a variety of medical conditions,’ said Tim Conahan, police chief for the Omaha Airport Authority. Conahan said just over 21,000 people were screened into the event, and more people were still inside the queue line awaiting screening. Trump said during his speech Tuesday that 29,000 people were there. The president, who spoke for nearly an hour, wrapped up shortly before 9 p.m. Some people in his audience waited until after midnight for campaign buses to take them to their cars, which were parked miles away.”

Fox News: “The Pennsylvania National Guard was deployed to Philadelphia Tuesday as the city braces for a second night of violent riots after tense confrontations between angry demonstrators and police hours after two officers shot and killed a Black man. Several hundred guardsmen will assist local agencies in ‘protecting life, property and the right to peacefully assemble and protest,’ Lt. Col. Keith Hickox said in a statement Tuesday. … The move by Gov. Tom Wolf, a Democrat, to activate the guard is a stark difference from other Democratic governors who have been hesitant or slow to mobilize troops in response to unfolding unrest. The Philadelphia Police Department will also beef up its presence across the city in anticipation of possible unrest over the death of Walter Wallace Jr., 27, city leaders said.”

Democrats doubt the Pennsylvania polls – NYT: “Polls show Mr. Biden leading by five to 13 points, but I grew up around here and am dubious. This place — the land of hoagies and Bradley Cooper and Rocky Balboa worship and Tina Fey’s ‘Cousin Karen’ accent — has transmogrified into Trumplandia. ‘He has so much more support than in 2016, because it’s been four years of accomplishments,’ said Darinna Thompson, 49, a homemaker who was talking with a group of women outside the Trump Store. They were part of a caravan that had just encircled the Democrats’ rally ‘to say bye-bye to Biden’ and let his supporters know they were outnumbered. … My parents, who are divorced and haven’t agreed on anything in 20 years, both plan to vote for Joe Biden. They say that, in their respective circles, this makes them unique.”

Monmouth University: “Republican incumbent David Perdue has lost his lead in Georgia’s regularly scheduled U.S. Senate election. Among all registered voters, Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff is backed by 49% and 46% support Perdue. … The race is close among likely voters. … However, just one month ago, Perdue held anywhere from a 5-point (high turnout) to 8-point (low turnout) lead depending on the likely voter model. The other Senate seat will be decided by a special election, featuring a blanket primary with 20 listed candidates on the November ballot. Democrat Raphael Warnock has pulled into a clear lead, with 41% support among registered voters, up from 21% in September and just 9% in July. …The battle for second place is very close between two Republicans. Incumbent Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed to the seat earlier this year, has 21% support and Congressman Doug Collins has 18%.”

Warnock follows Abrams’ playbook – Politico: “Rev. Raphael Warnock, a first-time political candidate who could be the key to a Democratic takeover of the U.S. Senate… Warnock, the 51-year-old senior pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church, has adopted a get-out-the-vote strategy focused on ginning up enthusiasm among first-time voters and liberal diehards. It’s similar to what Stacey Abrams attempted in her failed 2018 gubernatorial bid. But with anti-Trump sentiment running high and control of the Senate possibly at stake, Democrats here think this time will be different. Drawing on his past work as chairman of the New Georgia Project — an organization founded by Abrams — Warnock is aiming to turn out young and minority voters at record levels. He’s campaigning heavily in densely populated metro Atlanta while paying special attention to rural outposts like Cuthbert, a town of 4,000 near the Alabama border where he met DJ Ray J.”

James hanging on in Michigan poll – ABC News: “The Senate race there stands at 52% for incumbent Democrat Gary Peters versus 46% for Republican John James, not a statistically significant difference, thus a rare chance this cycle for a GOP pickup, with control of the Senate in the balance. … That includes virtual ties among independents and suburbanites, groups that may prove pivotal. Peters holds wide leads among Democrats (97%), Black people (90%), liberals (87%), those worried that they or a family member might catch the coronavirus (73%) and moderates (67%). Results among Black people are among registered voters for adequate sample size. For his part, James is lifted by Republicans (93%), conservatives (87%), those less worried about catching the virus (80%) and evangelical white Protestants (68%).”

Tillis scrambles, Cunningham tries to run out the clock – The [Raleigh] News & Observer: “The most expensive Senate race in U.S. history and one that could determine which party controls the chamber in January is down to its final week with polls tightening and North Carolina’s top two candidates employing very different approaches to the final days. Incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis announced a blitz of public campaign events across the state in the final days, appearing with high-profile Republican surrogates, including Vice President Mike Pence, and his wife. Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham is meeting voters across the state but has not announced any campaign events that are open to the media. It’s largely the strategy he and his campaign have used since allegations of marital infidelity first surfaced at the beginning of the month. He has not taken questions from the media since Oct. 9. Tillis, campaigning with Pence in Greensboro on Tuesday afternoon, attacked Cunningham over the scandal, a consistent theme for the Tillis in the final month of the race.”

Ernst heads to Nebraska to be with Trump – The [Cedar Rapids, Iowa] Gazette: “Candidates in Iowa’s crucial and competitive U.S. Senate race were on the move Tuesday as they kicked off the final sprint to the Nov. 3 election. Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield embarked on a statewide bus tour that will continue to Election Day, and Republican incumbent Joni Ernst was on her way to Omaha, where she was set to appear at a campaign event with President Donald Trump. Ernst and Greenfield are locked in a close race, according to polling data. The most recent polls show a tossup. Greenfield spoke with reporters Tuesday in Des Moines before hopping on her campaign bus; she was scheduled to make stops Tuesday in Marshalltown, Clear Lake, Ames and Rippey.”

Collins touts vote against Barrett – Portsmouth Herald: “The single Republican dissenter, Sen. Susan Collins‘ vote against Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett was purely about process, and not reflective of the judge’s qualifications, she said Tuesday. During a campaign stump at the Kittery Trading Post, Collins addressed her lone wolf position on the Supreme Court confirmation, saying she has a proven record of ‘supporting my party when they are correct, and opposing when I think they’re wrong.’ Where the Republicans were wrong in their Monday night vote, she said, was their choice to move ahead with a Supreme Court confirmation in an election year. She noted a precedent established four years ago not to do so, when Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell refused to consider President Obama’s Supreme Court nomination when Justice Antonin Scalia died in February 2016.”

Biden eyes Senate gains – Politico: “Now, in the final week of the election, Biden is throwing his weight into that pitch. He campaigned in Georgia on Tuesday with Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, the top Democrats running in the rapidly changing state’s dual Senate races. Meanwhile, his wife, Jill Biden, was in Maine stumping with Sara Gideon, the party’s candidate facing longtime GOP Sen. Susan Collins. And on Friday, Biden will make his first stop in Iowa since the state’s ill-fated caucuses, where the dead-heat Senate race has become the second most expensive in the country — and Biden and Trump are locked in a tight race themselves. Biden still hasn’t campaigned with every Democratic Senate hopeful, even in the swing states where the party is competitive at both levels. But his stops in Georgia and Iowa … underscore how Biden has been an asset in Democrats’ fight to flip the Senate.”

Roll Call: “The 2020 presidential election probably won’t end in the sort of nightmare scenario where a legal challenge or recount winds up at the Supreme Court and the justices decide who wins the White House. Probably. ‘Let’s put the chances of that happening at about 5.2 percent,’ Ben Ginsberg, the prominent election lawyer who led the George W. Bush campaign’s legal strategy during the disputed Florida recount in 2000, has quipped in preelection webinars. Ginsberg bases that on the idea that only three of the country’s 57 presidential elections have been contested and that the 2000 election had one state that was remarkably close and determined the outcome of the election. … Other election law experts agree that a Supreme Court case to determine the 2020 election would first need to meet several unlikely conditions: a narrow Electoral College count nationwide, with a legal challenge about voting in one or more states that could determine the outcome, and those challenges would depend on federal law and not just state law.”

Alberta: ‘One last funny feeling about 2020’ – Politico: “The bad news for Trump supporters: 2020 is nothing like 2016. We are always fighting the last war in politics. But if we’ve learned anything about American elections in the post-9/11 era, it’s that volatility is a feature, not a bug. George W. Bush’s ‘mandate’ in 2004 was wiped out by a Democratic rout in 2006. Barack Obama’s landslide in 2008 invited a Tea Party revolution in 2010. Trump’s shocking upset in 2016 was chased by a blue wave in 2018. These swings demonstrate how dramatic realignments—demographically, ideologically and otherwise—continue to accelerate in ways that keep both parties off balance. The coalitions that deliver victory often crumble just two years later. Four years, in this regard, amounts to an eternity.”

The racial divide in politics is actually shrinking – NYT: “The gap in presidential vote preference between white and nonwhite voters has shrunk by a surprising 16 percentage points since 2016, according to an Upshot analysis of pre-election polls, as Joe Biden gains among white voters and President Trump makes inroads among Black and Hispanic voters. … The decrease in racial polarization defies the expectations of many analysts, who believed a campaign focused on appeals to issues like Black Lives Matter or law and order would do the opposite. It may also upset the hopes of some activists on the left who viewed an embrace of more progressive policies on race as a way to help Democrats carve a new path to the presidency. This path would have been powered by overwhelming support from nonwhite voters, reducing the need to cater to the more conservative white voters who backed Mr. Trump four years ago. Instead, Mr. Biden leads because of gains among those very voters.”

Judge orders Postal Service to reverse postmaster’s mail collection limits – Politico

“I think it’s part of our cultural understanding of politics, where—if you think someone is great, you automatically think they should be president. I joke. I’m like, ‘Is Congress not good enough?’” – Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez talking to Vanity Fair about her political future.

“Long time reader… first time responder, born out of necessity to seek a bit more Clarity from the nosebleed seats. The latest version of your opening opine pointed out a poll that divulged 68% of the polled individuals think the country is NOT on the right track. I understand politics is your thing (and you do it well) and for the most part, you walk a fine line that I appreciate. However, let’s leave the dreaded current affairs of politics out of this and examine a couple of notes that could provide some perspective. #1 – We The People are in the middle of a Pandemic. Some lowly politicians have decided we can’t visit our elderly in nursing homes much less bury our dearly departed with the dignity of a memorable send off and large swaths of our country can’t even gather to worship our Lord & Savior for the shame due of a ‘potential’ super spreader event. #2 – We The People have been locked up for months, most with kids around 24/7, juggling work, home school and cooking again (argh!). #3 – We The People have been subjected to an intolerable mandate that the latest James Bond movie has been delayed into perpetuity and the good Lord forbid we be denied the return of ‘Top Gun’ should a few movie theaters survive the hell of this year. The point is, unless the pollster was around circa 1918 using the Pony Express to solicit results, there is no reasonable comparison to 2020 in my nearly 55yrs on this rock. I felt like a simple homage to the malaise that is 2020 might be a reasonable explanation for a good portion of the masses discontent. Not to sound cliche, but after all, this poll along with countless others was published in… you guessed it! 2020.” – Dave Taylor, Lake Kiowa, Texas

[Ed. note: Well put, Mr. Taylor! We can talk around and around about the other issues that are driving this election, the pandemic is at the center of it all. In “The Untouchables,” Elliot Ness is growing frustrated by the bloviation of his counterpart on the Royal Canadian Mounted Police with whom he and his T Men are conducting a joint raid. The Mountie has just declared that surprise is half the battle. Ness pipes up: “Surprise is half the battle. Many things are half the battle. Losing is half the battle. Let us think about what is all the battle.” Thanks for reading and taking the time to write.]

“How may I square the unsquareable? A recent Gallup poll shows 56 percent of Americans feel they’re better off now than they were four years ago, while Public Opinion Strategies shows 68 percent believe the country is moving in the wrong direction. Is this an indictment of the former as an inaccurate, long-in-the-tooth-polling service? Or is it that the latter is polling likely voters?” – Gary W. Cimino, Millville, N.J.

[Ed. note: We’ve heard a number of Republicans reference the September survey from Gallup that said 56 percent of likely voters said they were better off than they were four years ago – the metric made famous by Ronald Reagan in his campaign against incumbent Jimmy Carter in 1980. The September number was even higher than in Reagan’s landslide re-election of 1984 when only 44 percent said they felt that way. That suggests to me that the question may not have a high correlation to voter preferences. Reagan won 49 states with numbers below those in Barack Obama’s re-election year in which his electoral map actually shrank from 2004. Or, maybe voters perceive the question differently now in a more individualized era. As for the discrepancy between “right track/wrong track,” let’s stick with Gallup data. Since the “better off” and “satisfaction” polls were taken at roughly the same time, I have to conclude that a big chunk of voters simultaneously feel that their own situation is better than it was in 2016 but that things have gone badly off track for the country.]

Share your color commentary: Email us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM and please make sure to include your name and hometown.

ET Canada: “Raisins have been a scourge to everything from cereal to cookies, but now Drake is condemning mac and cheese to [a] similar doom. Drake held a birthday party in celebration of his 34th birthday over the weekend. Several attendees shared photos of the food menu on social media. One item on the surprisingly tame menu horrified fans of the Canadian rapper. Scroll down to the bottom of the listed items and you will find mac and cheese. What could be wrong with something as delightful and comforting as mac and cheese? Well, the answer lies in the pasta dish’s interesting recipe – someone opted to taint the ooey-gooey goodness of the beloved comfort food with raisins. There was more than one Drizzy fan desperately clinging to reality, trying to wake up from this never-ending fever dream.”

“Reality has a way of turning heroism to tragedy, even pathos.” – Charles Krauthammer (1950-2018) writing about Bernhard Goetz, otherwise known as the “Subway Vigilante,” in Time magazine on June 24, 2001.

Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for Fox News. Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here.

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