Congressional hopeful Andrew Janz outraised his opponent Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Tulare) by more than $1 million this quarter.
But will it be enough for the Fresno prosecutor to topple the eight-term incumbent come Tuesday?
All the recent polls say “no.”
A new report from the Federal Election Commission released late last month found that congressional candidate Andrew Janz raised $4,277,637.46 in the third quarter, between August and September.
Nunes, on the other hand, managed $3,147,964.65 — a quarter less than his opponent Janz, who emerged from political obscurity to become a minor national figure earlier this year.
The same report showed that, while Nunes lagged behind in campaign contributions, his spending was on pace with Janz’s.
Both campaigns spent about the same this quarter: just over $4 million apiece.
Among Nunes campaign expenditures last quarter was a 40-page mailer attacking the Fresno Bee. More than 100,000 copies were printed at a projected cost of $65,000.
Nunes is able to spend more than he raises in a given quarter because of his considerable campaign war chest, which now contains more than $5 million in cash-on-hand.
That’s more than triple what Janz has in the bank, about $1.5 million.
According to the commission’s report, nearly 12,000 people donated to Janz through the ActBlue platform.
ActBlue is a nonprofit that builds fundraising technology for the left, according to its website.
The fundraising platform has raised almost $3 billion dollars for progressive causes over 14 years, mostly through small-dollar, grassroots donations.
“Our campaign proves you can run a well-funded campaign without corporate influence, and a first-time politician can out-raise the House Intelligence Chairman even without party help,” Janz said.
Janz joins a wave of Democratic candidates to out-raise their Republican opponents in key races across the country.
A New York Times analysis of the election commission report found that Democrats out-raised their Republican rivals in “32 of the 45 closest House races.”
It’s unclear whether those fundraising efforts and excitement at the grassroots level will translate into votes for Janz come Nov. 6.
Nate Sliver’s FiveThirtyEight political poll analysis site says that Janz has only a 3 percent chance of winning the CA-22 seat.
“The only poll that matters will be on election night,” said Janz spokeswoman Heather Grevin. “It’s our job to get as many people as possible to vote, and we have been working at that goal for 19 months now.”
Nunes had not returned Times-Delta’s request for comment by the time of publication.
Nationally, the aggregate site forecasts that Democrats have an 85 percent chance of taking at least 23 seats to flip the House of Representatives.
The Senate, by contrast, is likely to remain in Republican control, with only a 20 percent chance of Democrats taking control.
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