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‘Good map for Democrats’: Nate Silver assesses odds of Republicans winning Senate


Polling guru Nate Silver says the fight between parties to win control of the Senate in the 2022 midterm elections is a “toss-up.”

Republicans need a net gain of only one seat to take control of the upper chamber, which is split 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris acting as the tiebreaker. But even with President Joe Biden’s low poll numbers and rising inflation, it remains a tough call for the GOP.

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After noting that FiveThirtyEight’s model pegs the Democrats as having a very low (10-15%) chance of maintaining control of the House, Silver said it is a “very different story” for the Senate. “For one thing, it’s a pretty good map for Democrats,” Silver said Sunday on ABC News’s This Week.

“Republicans are defending 21 seats, to 14 for Democrats,” he added. “And all the Democrats are in states that Joe Biden won. But Republicans have taken some good risks with their candidates, electing several nominees in key races who are either politically inexperienced, like Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, or have personal scandals, like Herschel Walker in Georgia, or have made controversial statements on abortion, like J.D. Vance in Ohio.”

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The model shows the chances of Republicans rising to power in the Senate at “only about 50%,” Silver said. “In other words, it’s a toss-up,” he added. “So, no, I can’t really buy this one. In the House, yeah, the GOP is a clear favorite. But the Senate is anybody’s guess.”

Republicans are promising some major investigations if they win one or both chambers of Congress in the fall. Among them are inquiries into Dr. Anthony Fauci, Hunter Biden, and the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.





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