Another poll suggests trouble for Chesa Boudin in the recall. How reliable is the data?

Poll after poll shows that things are really not looking good for Chesa Boudin.

The latest, released Thursday by the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce and conducted by EMC Research, found that 67% of survey respondents were planning on voting “yes” on the district attorney’s upcoming recall election, while just 31% said they would vote “no.”

This follows three other polls that show, at best, support for Boudin trailing support for the recall by about 10%. Overall polls show him getting recalled by a significant margin.

However, the specifics of the polls’ results vary significantly. The Chronicle examined each of the major Boudin recall polls in detail, reaching out to several nonpartisan polling experts to get their opinions on the polls and what they can tell us about the election.

Thad Kousser, Department Chair of Political Science at UC San Diego, said that all four polls “look like credible approaches” to surveying a representative sample of San Franciscans and capturing the political mood of the city in the lead-up to the election.

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