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The Economist’s 2022 midterms forecast


Simulated Senate seats won

Each day, we run 10,000 simulated elections based on polling, demographics, fundraising and historical results. These statistics reflect the outcomes of those simulated elections.

Average prediction

Dem

Rep

4244464852545658

5151 4949


2020 Senate results

5050 5050

Republicans win
in 22
out of 100 simulations

Democrats win
in 78
out of 100 simulations

Predicted to win 45⁠–⁠53 seats

Predicted to win 47⁠–⁠55 seats

Chance of winning by race

Each state has two senators, but only a third of Senate seats are up for election in any year. Republicans currently hold most of this year’s seats, giving the Democrats an advantage. Still, to keep the majority Democrats must hang on to seats in places like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, or pick up seats in states such as Ohio, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.

Very likely


5


0

85–99 in 100

Likely


0


3

65–85 in 100

36 seats not up for election 29 seats not up for election 50 seats for majority


Party change likely


Uncertain

ALAL

ARAR

CTCT

FLFL

HIHI

IDID

IAIA

KYKY

MEME

MAMA

MTMT

NYNY

NCNC

OHOH

PAPA

SCSC

TNTN

WAWA

WVWV

AZAZ

CACA

COCO

GAGA

ILIL

ININ

MIMI

MSMS

NENE

NVNV

NJNJ

NMNM

OKOK

OROR

TXTX

UTUT

VAVA

KSKS

WIWI

LALA

MDMD

MNMN

MOMO

NHNH

RIRI

NDND

WYWY

VTVT

SDSD

AKAK

DEDE


Senate forecasts over time

The Democrats face strong headwinds in trying to keep control of the Senate. The president’s party typically loses seats in midterm elections. Pessimism about the economy will not help them either. However, in key races Republicans have nominated potentially unelectable fringe candidates. Moreover, the Supreme Court’s decision to permit tighter abortion restrictions has energised Democratic voters.

Chance of winning a majority

0

25

50

75

100

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Election day Election day

7th 7th Dem 78% Dem 78% Rep 22% Rep 22%

Forecast number of seats

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Election day Election day

7th 7th Dem 51 Dem 51 Rep 49 Rep 49

Sources: Clerk of the House of Representatives; Congressional Quarterly; MIT Election Lab; VoteView; Gary Jacobson; Ballotpedia; Daily Kos Elections; OurCampaigns; state election records; Corwin Smidt; American National Election Studies; Polidata; RealClearPolitics; DC Political Report; FiveThirtyEight; US Election Atlas; Huffington Post Pollster; Congressional District Religiosity Dataset; American Community Survey; United States Census; Wikipedia; Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections; Carl Klarner; Federal Election Commission; Joseph Bafumi; Roper Centre; The Economist



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