In the last two midterm cycles, Democrats have excelled in the Keystone state, winning blowout victories far beyond what would be expected given the national environment. They might need to do it again to win Pennsylvania in 2022 because the state leans slightly towards the Republican party relative to the national vote based on its electoral history over the last six years.
There are growing indications that Democrats are primed to do it again. Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman has taken a decisive lead in the polls. He’s been a fundraising machine, building an army of small-dollar donors that have helped him raise a staggering $26 million. On paper, his opponent, Celebrity Doctor Mehmet Oz, has raised an impressive total of $19 million. However, $14 million of that came from his bank account, and he burned through all but $1 million by the last FEC Deadline.
Fetterman’s campaign has been laser-focused on winning back the white blue-collar workers that have shifted towards the GOP in the Trump era while framing Dr. Oz as an outsider detached from the realities of most Pennsylvanians. The polls suggest it’s been a winning strategy, as Fetterman is now leading by almost 9% in the polls.
RacetotheWH runs a PA Senate Forecast, and was more accurate at predicting the final margin in Senate races than Nate Silver’s 538. Their Senate Forecast predicts the race will start to even out by election day but still has Fetterman on track to win by 6.8%. Click here for the full forecast for the Senate.
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