Two days before Election Day, Silver shared FiveThirtyEight‘s forecasts for the balance of power in Congress on ABC’s This Week, signaling a strong performance for the GOP, though one that is not guaranteed on all fronts.
“In the House, you have a pretty clear front-runner, which is the GOP given the history of the opposition party doing well in the midterms, given the polling, the president’s approval rating,” Silver said on Sunday.
He then employed a football metaphor. “It’s not a guarantee, but it’s as though they’re kicking a 42-yard field goal. You would expect that to happen most of the time,” Silver said.
“The Senate is much closer,” he added. “We have the GOP with a 55-45 edge. You can call that a dead heat if you want. You’d rather have 55 than 45. But with six or seven races within a couple points, you could have fairly big swings either way.”
Republicans need only a net gain of one seat to dominate the upper chamber, which is currently split with a 50-50 tie that is broken by Vice President Kamala Harris. Competitive races include those in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona.
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