Why did Will Levis “fall” from the first round? Tape tells the story.

Moving to the 2022 season, and the common comparisons to Buffalo Bills star quarterback Josh Allen — which never made sense to me, but seemed logical on the surface, as Allen was not a fully-formed passer at Wyoming.

Levis now and Allen in his final collegiate season of 2017 both have (had) the ability to turn deep passes into game-altering plays, while still leaving a lot of meat on the bone. In 2017, Allen completed 15 of 46 passes of 20 or more air yards for 441 yards, eight touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 90.7.

In Levis’ final collegiate season, he completed 16 of 39 deep passes for 541 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 75.5. Both quarterbacks had three deep passes dropped by their receivers in those seasons.

So, if we’re going to affix the “Next Josh Allen” title to Levis’ draft profile, we’d better be able to discern the source of those seven missing deep touchdowns.

You’re going to hear a lot about Levis’ relatively mediocre supporting cast when excusing his inefficiencies, and that does show up on tape. If you’re going to throw deep to the boundary, you need at least one receiver who can beat tight boundary coverage.

There were times when Levis’ targets could do that, as seen by receiver Barion Brown on this 31-yard completion against Georgia cornerback Kelee Ringo. Browning did a really nice job of separating at the right moment to get the ball Ringo couldn’t.

And here’s Levis throwing Brown open against Ringo from the slot in that same game — this time, for a 42-yard gain.

The difference between arm strength and arm talent is in part a quarterback’s ability to use timing, accuracy, and velocity to win in contested situations. As this interception against Youngtown State showed, Levis struggles with the combination of these three aspects too often.

Levis can throw to any area of the field in which his receivers are decidedly open, and he will make the occasional big-time throw with outstanding velocity. But the finishing touches that make great NFL deep-ball throwers are not on display nearly enough.